Ministers are approaching “crunch time” over spending on SEND and tackling the “growing dysfunction” in the system, according to a new report.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned that the cost of educating children with special needs would double between 2015 and 2028, causing a “squeeze” to funding for mainstream schools.
Its annual report on education spending in England said the financial pressures risked “crowding out resources for mainstream schools and constraining the system’s ability to deliver a broad, balanced and high-quality education for all”.
Overall, spending per pupil rose by 10% in real terms between 2019 and 2025, however in mainstream schools spending increased by just 5% in the same time, which was less that was needed.
Spiralling SEND costs are being funded by squeezing mainstream school funding – effectively robbing Peter to pay Paul
Luke Sibieta, one of the authors of the report, said: “The most important education issue facing the government is the growing dysfunction in the special educational needs system.
“The problems here are not new but they have been growing, and the government is right to stress the importance of reform for the sake of everyone involved – children, families, schools and councils. But we have now reached crunch time.”
Stark choices for the government
Sibieta added: “In the near term, ministers face a stark set of choices: slow the growth of SEND spending, accept an ongoing squeeze on mainstream school funding, or inject additional resources into education through higher taxes or reductions elsewhere.
“Reform must be part of the picture. The current system is increasingly costly and failing to deliver for everyone.
“Whether the government can both put the system on a stronger long-term footing, and manage to generate shorter-term savings, will be a crucial test for the forthcoming schools white paper.”
The report pointed to forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which showed a £6 billion gap between expected funding and spending on SEND in 2028 – a shortfall that is equivalent to 9% of the total expected school budget for that year.
The schools white paper, expected this term, will detail the government’s thinking, which is likely to include expanding SEND provision in mainstream schools to remove the costs associated with costly special school places.
Safeguarding legal rights
Campaigners have been mobilising to safeguard SEND children’s legal rights and EHCPs, which are at risk of being scrapped for all but pupils with the most complex needs.
The IFS said reducing the use of EHCPs or limiting support “would likely be needed to meaningfully slow high-needs spending growth”, but that any savings “would be slow to materialise” and further investment would be required to improve the capacity of mainstream schools.
Pepe Di’Iasio, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “This analysis shows the importance of the government getting its planned SEND reforms right from a financial perspective.
“We clearly cannot continue with a situation where spiralling costs are being funded by squeezing mainstream school funding – effectively robbing Peter to pay Paul – and where even then the level of need outstrips the money available for SEND support.
“The pressure on funding has left many schools having to make cutbacks on their curriculum, pastoral support, and extracurricular activities as well increasing class sizes. The situation is, if anything, even worse in colleges where funding is still some way short of where it was in real terms 15 years ago.”
He added: “While there is fantastic work going on in many schools and colleges to support young people with SEND, the system as a whole is not meeting the current level of need in the way it should.”
