The cost to councils in England of transporting SEND children to school could top £3.4 billion within five years, unless the White Paper addresses the funding crisis with reforms.
The County Councils Network estimates it would be transporting more than 100,000 more young people with SEND if the system remains as it is.
The analysis shows that councils are on course to be transporting a ‘city’s worth’ of extra young people between now and 2031, with local authorities warning that the numbers are becoming overwhelming.
The findings come ahead of the government’s upcoming Schools White Paper, thought to be imminent.
The CCN says that it must introduce comprehensive reforms to the SEND system, including to ECHPs and tribunals, to help confront the rapidly rising costs of school transport.
According to the organisation, SEND pupils now cost councils close to £10,000 on average to get to school, with costs projected to rise further.
Last year councils spent £9,481 on average per SEND pupil, and this could rise to almost £11,000 per pupil in 2030-31 because of fuel costs, inflation and some pupils travelling in single-occupancy vehicles.
Less money for mainstream pupils
The rising demand for transport for SEND pupils is squeezing provision for mainstream pupils who may also require transportation if they do not live within walking distance to their school.
In 2015, 64% of councils’ entire school transport budgets were spent on SEND school transport, and this is projected to rise to 85% by 2030-31.
Faced with mounting costs, a recent CCN survey found that three quarters of councils plan to tighten eligibility for mainstream school transport over the next three years.
Earlier this month, the government announced that 90% of the estimated £6.6 billion in SEND deficits that councils have built up over the last decade to deliver the non-transport, day-to-day services will be paid for by the Treasury.
The government will also absorb all SEND spending into central government from 2028 onwards.
But the CCM said this does not account for expenditure on SEND home to school transport. The £1.4 billion rise in cost between 2024-25 and 2030-31 is the third highest spend pressure facing councils over the next few years.
Local authorities are required to offer free transport for school-age children who cannot walk to their nearest school due to distance, or who have a SEND, including post-16 students.
The organisation said the Schools White Paper should set out reforms to mainstream schools, enabling them to better support more SEND pupils in their local school and closer to home, reducing the reliance on special and independent school places. This will help curtail transport costs.
Building sustainability
The report says that government could also consider a means-testing policy for school transport, which could help to ensure that support is focused on those that need it the most.
Councillor Bill Revans, SEND Spokesperson for the County Councils Network, said: “All eyes are on the Schools White Paper as a means to bring the system back to sustainability.
“It is vital that government does not ignore the alarming rise in SEND school transport costs, which has become one of the biggest pressures on council budgets over the last few years.
“The numbers are becoming overwhelming for many councils’ budgets. If nothing changes, they will be transporting more than 100,000 additional pupils within six years – a city’s worth of young people.
“There are many unintended consequences to this, not least a tighter squeeze on who is eligible for mainstream school transport.
“Therefore, the government must ensure the white paper sets out proposals that are comprehensive enough to deal with the scale of the transport challenge, not just what happens in the classroom – including changes to EHCPs and tribunals.”
