Spending on special needs and disabilities could soon exceed that of entire government departments, unless the system is urgently reformed.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated that high-needs spending could rise to £15 billion a year by 2029, while council deficits will rise to £8 billion by 2028. The spending would be greater than that of the Ministry of Justice, it said.
The think-tank called on the Office for Budget Responsibility to publish annual forecasts for spending and deficits “given the scale and growth of spending, and the risk they pose”.
The IFS warned that councils had “little control” over SEND spending, as this was determined by statutory provision set out in education, health and care plans (EHCPs).
Its key findings include:
- A dramatic increased in the numbers of children needs support in schools, and through the benefit system for disabilities. The share of pupils aged under 16 in England with EHCPs has almost double from 2.7% in 2016 to 5.2% in 2025. At the same time the proportion of children receiving child disability living allowance (CDLA) has jumped from 3.4% to 7.2%
- Spending on children with EHCPs has increased by 66% to £7.5 billion in 2016 to at least £12 billion in 2025. The IFS forecasted that this will rise by another £3 billion by 2029 without any reforms
- The impact on local authorities is not financially sustainable and “if left unchecked these spending pressures will likely imply rea-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil
- Spending on CDLA doubled from £2 billion her year in 2016 to more than £4 billion in 2025, with a further increased of £1.8 billion forecast
- There is a “substantial overlap” between children receiving SEND support and disability benefits. Of the 141,000 12- to 15-year-olds who received CDLA in England at the start of 2020, 84% had an identified special educational need and 52% had an EHCP
- Much of the rise in support and financial claims is related to autism and ADHD. The number of children with EHCPs for autism spectrum disorder has almost tripled from 54,000 in 2015 to 149,000 in 2025, accounting for 40% of the total increase in EHCPs
- Those who received SEND support as children are likely to be out of work and to receive additional state support when they reach early adulthood. At age 22, those who had received both CDLA and an EHCP at age 15 were three times more likely to be not in education, employment or training than their peers – 50% relative to 16%
- Boys, older children and children from poorer families are more likely to receive additional support in the education and benefit systems. More than two-thirds of children with EHCPs or CDLA are boys, making boys twice as likely to get support
- There are big differences across ethnic groups in the share of children receiving support relating to a special educational need or disability. Among those aged 12–15 in 2020, 2.0% of pupils from the Indian ethnic group had an EHCP compared with 4.3% among the White British population and 5.7% amongst the Black Caribbean population
- There is a strong case for the government to review all systems of support for children with SEND, particularly CDLA, which has remained broadly unchanged since its introduction over 30 years ago
More investment needed early on
Pepe Di’Iasio, General Secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said: “The truly shocking thing is that despite this increase in spending we are still left with a system that is failing to cope with the needs of these children and young people.
“Schools do not have sufficient funding and resources, assessments are commonly delayed, and families are left desperate and frustrated by the gaps in the system.”
Paul Whiteman, general secretary at school leaders’ union, NAHT, said: “The solution lies not in artificially cutting entitlement to support for children who need help, but in the government investing more in early identification of children’s needs and support at a younger age, helping prevent more intensive intervention becoming necessary as they get older.”
A spokesperson for the Department for Education (DfE) said the IFS report was “further evidence of the broken SEND system this government inherited”.
